← FIFA World Cup 2022 · Mon, Dec 5, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: I. Elfath · pens 1–3
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Croatia win | 46% | 31% | 2.18 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 28% | 3.35 | fair |
| Japan win | 25% | 42% | 4.00 | value: +68% ⚠ |
across 4 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 43' | ⚽ | Daizen Maeda · Japan |
| 43' | ⚽ | Daizen Maeda · Japan |
| 55' | ⚽ | Ivan Perisic · Croatia |
| 55' | ⚽ | Ivan Perisic · Croatia |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mateo Kovacic · Croatia |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mateo Kovačić · Croatia |
| 116' | 🟨 | Borna Barisic · Croatia |
| 116' | 🟨 | Borna Barišić · Croatia |
| 120' | ⚽ (pen) | Nikola Vlasic · Croatia |
| 120' | ⚽ (pen) | Marcelo Brozović · Croatia |
| 120' | ⚽ (pen) | Takuma Asano · Japan |
| 120' | ⚽ (pen) | Mario Pašalić · Croatia |
| pens | ✅ shootout | Takuma Asano · Japan |
| pens | ✅ shootout | Nikola Vlasic · Croatia |
| pens | ✅ shootout | Marcelo Brozovic · Croatia |
| pens | ✅ shootout | Mario Pasalic · Croatia |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Japan | Croatia |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.51 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.43 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1587.00 | 1891.00 |
| congestion 21d | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) |
| duration | PENALTY_SHOOTOUT |
| final away goals | 1 |
| final home goals | 1 |
| qualified | away |
| venue | Al Janoub Stadium |
| 5.00 |
| 2.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | — | 2.04 |
| elo | 1833.26 | 1848.76 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.90 | 23.64 |
| eye test v1 | -0.15 | 0.68 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.40 | 65.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.65 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.76 |
| league points | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.60 | 83.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.60 | 56.40 |
| rest days | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 1.67 |
| skill v1 | -0.49 | 1.05 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.33 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 28.43 | 29.39 |
| state index | 0.52 | 0.99 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.84 | 0.68 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |