← FIFA World Cup 2022 · Mon, Dec 5, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: C. Turpin
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil win | 78% | 92% | 1.27 | value: +17% |
| Draw | 15% | 6% | 6.75 | fair |
| South Korea win | 7% | 2% | 15.00 | fair |
across 4 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Vinícius Júnior · Brazil |
| 7' | ⚽ | Vinícius Júnior · Brazil |
| 13' | ⚽ (pen) | Neymar · Brazil |
| 13' | ⚽ (pen) | Neymar · Brazil |
| 29' | ⚽ | Richarlison · Brazil |
| 29' | ⚽ | Richarlison · Brazil |
| 36' | ⚽ | Lucas Paquetá · Brazil |
| 36' | ⚽ | Lucas Paquetá · Brazil |
| 44' | 🟨 | Jung Woo-Young · South Korea |
| 44' | 🟨 | Woo-Young Jung · South Korea |
| 76' | ⚽ | Paik Seung-Ho · South Korea |
| 76' | ⚽ | Seung Ho Paik · South Korea |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 4 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Brazil | South Korea |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.31 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.45 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 2378.00 | 1587.00 |
| congestion 21d | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) |
| venue | Stadium 974 |
| 3.00 |
| 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 6.00 |
| elo | 2050.96 | 1806.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.04 | -10.33 |
| eye test v1 | 1.09 | 0.41 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.26 | -0.40 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.00 | 58.67 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.66 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | — |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.89 |
| league points | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 23.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 88.20 | 78.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.20 | 42.60 |
| rest days | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 1.33 |
| skill v1 | 1.77 | -0.28 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.78 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 27.51 | 29.06 |
| state index | 1.44 | 0.28 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.73 | -1.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.00 |