← FIFA World Cup 2022 · Tue, Dec 6, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: F. Rapallini · pens 3–0
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spain win | 60% | 52% | 1.65 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 28% | 4.00 | value: +10% |
| Morocco win | 15% | 20% | 6.60 | value: +33% |
across 4 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 76' | 🟨 | Aymeric Laporte · Spain |
| 76' | 🟨 | Aymeric Laporte · Spain |
| 90' | 🟨 | Romain Saïss · Morocco |
| 90' | 🟨 | Romain Saïss · Morocco |
| 120' | ⚽ (pen) | Abdelhamid Sabiri · Morocco |
| 120' | ⚽ (pen) | Hakim Ziyech · Morocco |
| 120' | ⚽ (pen) | Achraf Hakimi · Morocco |
| pens | ✅ shootout | Abdelhamid Sabiri · Morocco |
| pens | ✅ shootout | Hakim Ziyech · Morocco |
| pens | ✅ shootout | Achraf Hakimi · Morocco |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Morocco | Spain |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.40 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 127.00 | 1131.00 |
| congestion 21d | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | 3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) |
| duration | PENALTY_SHOOTOUT |
| final away goals | 0 |
| final home goals | 0 |
| qualified | home |
| venue | Education City Stadium |
| 5.80 |
| 2.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 5.20 |
| elo | 1860.84 | 1940.85 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 62.39 | -34.48 |
| eye test v1 | -0.62 | 1.07 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.09 | -0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.20 | 60.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 2.58 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | — | 1.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.65 |
| league points | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.80 | 90.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.40 | 76.00 |
| rest days | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| scorer concentration | 0.13 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 2.33 | 1.33 |
| skill v1 | -0.34 | 2.93 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 5.86 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 6.00 |
| squad age | 27.22 | 25.49 |
| state index | 1.41 | 0.34 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.19 | 2.28 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |