← FIFA World Cup 2022 · Tue, Dec 6, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: C. Ramos
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portugal win | 50% | 70% | 2.00 | value: +39% ⚠ |
| Draw | 27% | 20% | 3.65 | fair |
| Switzerland win | 23% | 10% | 4.50 | fair |
across 4 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | ⚽ | Gonçalo Ramos · Portugal |
| 17' | ⚽ | Gonçalo Ramos · Portugal |
| 33' | ⚽ | Pepe · Portugal |
| 33' | ⚽ | Pepê · Portugal |
| 43' | 🟨 | Fabian Schär · Switzerland |
| 43' | 🟨 | Fabian Schär · Switzerland |
| 51' | ⚽ | Gonçalo Ramos · Portugal |
| 51' | ⚽ | Gonçalo Ramos · Portugal |
| 55' | ⚽ | Raphaël Guerreiro · Portugal |
| 55' | ⚽ | Raphaël Guerreiro · Portugal |
| 58' | ⚽ | Manuel Akanji · Switzerland |
| 58' | ⚽ | Manuel Akanji · Switzerland |
| 59' | 🟨 | Eray Cömert · Switzerland |
| 59' | 🟨 | Eray Cömert · Switzerland |
| 67' | ⚽ | Gonçalo Ramos · Portugal |
| 67' | ⚽ | Gonçalo Ramos · Portugal |
| 90'+2' | ⚽ | Rafael Leão · Portugal |
| 90' | ⚽ | Rafael Leão · Portugal |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Portugal | Switzerland |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.28 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 3018.00 | 492.00 |
| congestion 21d | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) |
| venue | Lusail Iconic Stadium |
| 2.60 |
| 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.20 |
| elo | 1930.51 | 1813.48 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.63 | 4.86 |
| eye test v1 | 0.41 | -0.34 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.09 | 0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.33 | 59.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.78 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.67 |
| league points | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.80 | 83.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 65.00 | 54.60 |
| rest days | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.50 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.89 | 0.95 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.33 | 3.43 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 26.04 | 28.24 |
| state index | 1.45 | 0.33 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.36 | 0.81 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.20 |