← FIFA World Cup 2022 · Fri, Dec 9, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Oliver · pens 4–2
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil win | 69% | 71% | 1.43 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 19% | 4.90 | fair |
| Croatia win | 11% | 9% | 9.80 | fair |
across 4 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | 🟨 | Danilo · Brazil |
| 31' | 🟨 | Marcelo Brozović · Croatia |
| 68' | 🟨 | Casemiro · Brazil |
| 77' | 🟨 | Marquinhos · Brazil |
| 105' | ⚽ | Neymar · Brazil |
| 117' | 🟨 | Bruno Petković · Croatia |
| 117' | ⚽ | Bruno Petković · Croatia |
| 120' | ⚽ (pen) | Nikola Vlasic · Croatia |
| 120' | ⚽ (pen) | Lovro Majer · Croatia |
| 120' | ⚽ (pen) | Casemiro · Brazil |
| 120' | ⚽ (pen) | Luka Modric · Croatia |
| 120' | ⚽ (pen) | Pedro · Brazil |
| 120' | ⚽ (pen) | Mislav Oršić · Croatia |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Croatia | Brazil |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.35 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1895.00 | 2382.00 |
| congestion 21d | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.02 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1854.01 |
| duration | PENALTY_SHOOTOUT |
| final away goals | 1 |
| final home goals | 1 |
| qualified | home |
| venue | Education City Stadium |
| 2052.16 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.98 | -28.07 |
| eye test v1 | 0.40 | 1.08 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.32 | -0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.40 | 53.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.55 | 1.76 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | — |
| league points | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.40 | 87.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.00 | 58.00 |
| rest days | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 2.25 |
| skill v1 | 1.15 | 1.53 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.20 |
| squad age | 29.58 | 28.49 |
| state index | 0.51 | 1.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.91 | 0.45 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |