← FIFA World Cup 2022 · Sat, Dec 10, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Wilton Pereira Sampaio
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| France win | 35% | 28% | 2.80 | fair |
| England win | 34% | 44% | 2.98 | value: +31% |
| Draw | 31% | 28% | 3.20 | fair |
across 4 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | ⚽ | Aurélien Tchouaméni · France |
| 17' | ⚽ | Aurélien Tchouaméni · France |
| 43' | 🟨 | Antoine Griezmann · France |
| 43' | 🟨 | Antoine Griezmann · France |
| 46' | 🟨 | Ousmane Dembélé · France |
| 46' | 🟨 | Ousmane Dembélé · France |
| 54' | ⚽ (pen) | Harry Kane · England |
| 54' | ⚽ (pen) | Harry Kane · England |
| 78' | ⚽ | Olivier Giroud · France |
| 78' | ⚽ | Olivier Giroud · France |
| 82' | 🟨 | Theo Hernández · France |
| 82' | 🟨 | Theo Hernández · France |
| 90' | 🟨 | Harry Maguire · England |
| 90' | 🟨 | Harry Maguire · England |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | England | France |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.46 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.76 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 2291.00 | 3814.00 |
| congestion 21d | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) |
| venue | Al Bayt Stadium |
| 3.60 |
| 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.77 | 2.76 |
| elo | 1929.13 | 1961.14 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 25.79 | -4.55 |
| eye test v1 | 0.46 | 1.13 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.27 | 0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.00 | 62.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.10 | 1.56 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.67 |
| league points | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.20 | 83.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.40 | 53.20 |
| rest days | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.56 |
| season ppg | 2.50 | 2.25 |
| skill v1 | 1.69 | 0.80 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.20 |
| squad age | 27.13 | 27.75 |
| state index | 1.42 | 0.89 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.39 | 0.09 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |