← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Jul 18, 08:10 PM UTC · scheduled
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Arizona Diamondbacks win | 52% | 1.76 |
| St. Louis Cardinals win | 48% | 1.93 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)