Toronto Blue Jays v Chicago White Sox

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Jul 18, 07:07 PM UTC · scheduled

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Toronto Blue Jays win	50%	1.83
Chicago White Sox win	50%	1.93

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
Chicago White Sox win		1.60	1.93	+21.1%
Toronto Blue Jays win		1.79	1.79	0.0%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.