Kansas City Royals v San Diego Padres

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Jul 18, 12:10 AM UTC · scheduled

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Kansas City Royals win	51%	2.09
San Diego Padres win	49%	2.19

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
San Diego Padres win		1.79	2.01	+12.0%
Kansas City Royals win		1.90	1.83	-3.6%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.