← Premier League 2004-05 · Wed, May 11, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: A Wiley
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Arsenal win | 60% | 1.61 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.75 |
| Everton win | 16% | 6.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Under | 53% | 1.80 |
| Over | 47% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 7 |
| 12 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 9 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.