← Premier League 2004-05 · Sat, May 7, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: P Dowd
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Blackburn win | 45% | 2.10 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.25 |
| Fulham win | 26% | 3.50 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Under | 56% | 1.66 |
| Over | 44% | 2.15 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 8 |
| 6 | On target | 6 |
| 8 | Corners | 5 |
| 11 | Fouls | 23 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.