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Trabzonspor 1–2 Bursaspor

← Süper Lig 2016 · Sat, Jun 3, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Firat Aydinus, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Trabzonspor win49%1.99
Bursaspor win28%3.51
Draw23%4.19

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

5'🟨Aziz Behich · Bursaspor
55'⚽Hugo Rodallega · Trabzonspor
61'⚽Cristóbal Jorquera · Bursaspor
64'🟨João Pereira · Trabzonspor
69'⚽Pablo Batalla · Bursaspor
90'🟨Carl Medjani · Trabzonspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricTrabzonsporBursaspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.410.42
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.250.48
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.240.37
box share (last 5)0.600.55
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days519.002.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.023.09
elo1553.58
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueMedical Park Stadyumu
1384.95
elo momentum (last 5)-16.66-56.58
eye test v10.09-0.68
eye trend v1-0.530.05
first sub minute (last 10)61.6049.10
form points (last 5)4.000.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.20-3.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.003.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.800.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.170.92
keeper form v1—0.48
league points51.0035.00
league rank6.0015.00
matches since blank1.002.00
matches since clean sheet1.006.00
matches since win5.006.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.8074.00
possession avg (last 5)55.0042.00
rest days6.926.04
scorer concentration0.150.25
season ppg1.551.06
skill v10.43-0.76
sot against avg (last 5)3.006.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.704.00
sot for avg (last 3)3.003.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.003.40
state index-0.34-1.81
sterile dominance v1-0.20-0.15
threat rate (last 10)0.250.19
threat rate (last 3)0.240.18
threat rate (last 5)0.300.18
venue ppg (last 5)1.000.20