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Antalyaspor 4–1 Gaziantep

← Süper Lig 2016 · Fri, Jun 2, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Suat Arslanboga, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Antalyaspor win70%1.39
Draw17%5.79
Gaziantep win13%7.56

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

20'🟨Yusuf Çelik · Antalyaspor
20'⚽Jean-Armel Drolé · Antalyaspor
28'⚽Serkan Bakan · Gaziantep
43'⚽Zeki Yildirim · Antalyaspor
45'🟨Sergei Kislyak · Gaziantep
56'⚽Jean-Armel Drolé · Antalyaspor
71'⚽Samuel Eto'o · Antalyaspor
87'🟨Alpay Kocakli · Gaziantep

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAntalyasporGaziantep
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.430.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.420.39
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.440.36
box share (last 5)0.590.58
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days244.0093.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.052.27
elo1557.75
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueAntalya Stadyumu
1379.26
elo momentum (last 5)43.17-41.26
eye test v11.18-0.26
eye trend v1-0.150.32
first sub minute (last 10)58.6057.00
form points (last 5)12.001.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.40-2.60
goals against avg (last 5)0.802.80
goals for avg (last 5)2.200.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.581.37
keeper form v10.72—
league points55.0026.00
league rank5.0017.00
matches since blank3.000.00
matches since clean sheet0.004.00
matches since win0.005.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.6075.20
possession avg (last 5)55.2044.00
rest days6.175.04
scorer concentration0.350.25
season ppg1.670.79
skill v10.93-0.50
sot against avg (last 5)3.406.00
sot for avg (last 10)6.203.50
sot for avg (last 3)6.334.67
sot for avg (last 5)6.803.80
state index0.67-1.34
sterile dominance v10.21-0.43
threat rate (last 10)0.270.26
threat rate (last 3)0.270.28
threat rate (last 5)0.280.24
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.80