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Akhisarspor 2–3 Kardemir Karabukspor

← Süper Lig 2016 · Fri, Jun 2, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Ali Sansalan, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Akhisarspor win71%1.38
Draw17%5.81
Kardemir Karabukspor win12%7.83

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

9'⚽Sokol Cikalleshi · Akhisarspor
48'⚽Ermin Zec · Kardemir Karabukspor
58'⚽Ermin Zec · Kardemir Karabukspor
76'🟨Custodio · Akhisarspor
76'⚽ (pen)Ermin Zec · Kardemir Karabukspor
82'⚽ (pen)Ricardo Vaz Tê · Akhisarspor
86'🟨Tolga Ünlü · Akhisarspor
90'🟨Cristian Tănase · Kardemir Karabukspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAkhisarsporKardemir Karabukspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.470.29
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.410.23
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.450.23
box share (last 5)0.700.56
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days93.00121.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.113.03
elo
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueManisa 19 Mayis
1552.39
1447.85
elo momentum (last 5)86.49-17.35
eye test v10.78-0.50
eye trend v1-0.270.03
first sub minute (last 10)60.4057.30
form points (last 5)15.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)3.60-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)0.001.80
goals for avg (last 5)3.601.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.751.15
keeper form v10.820.64
league points48.0040.00
league rank7.0012.00
matches since blank10.001.00
matches since clean sheet0.003.00
matches since win0.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.6074.40
possession avg (last 5)44.8051.00
rest days6.045.04
scorer concentration0.210.21
season ppg1.451.21
skill v10.00-0.10
sot against avg (last 5)3.204.60
sot for avg (last 10)5.103.40
sot for avg (last 3)4.003.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.403.00
state index1.51-0.79
sterile dominance v1-0.76-0.24
threat rate (last 10)0.290.23
threat rate (last 3)0.320.25
threat rate (last 5)0.320.27
venue ppg (last 5)2.400.40