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Gaziantep 0–4 Besiktas

← Süper Lig 2016 · Sun, May 28, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Mete Kalkavan, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Besiktas win82%1.14
Draw12%8.00
Gaziantep win6%16.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

6'⚽Ryan Babel · Besiktas
19'🟨Musa Nizam · Gaziantep
39'⚽Oğuzhan Özyakup · Besiktas
51'🟨Evans Kangwa · Gaziantep
66'⚽Anderson Talisca · Besiktas
76'⚽Anderson Talisca · Besiktas

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score2

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGaziantepBesiktas
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.470.41
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.410.39
box share (last 5)0.520.66
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days88.00727.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.203.74
elo1387.22
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueGaziantep Stadium
1675.07
elo momentum (last 5)-19.35-0.76
eye test v1-0.231.37
eye trend v10.320.00
first sub minute (last 10)56.9056.80
form points (last 5)4.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.600.80
goals against avg (last 5)2.201.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.602.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.371.49
keeper form v10.630.69
league points26.0071.00
league rank17.001.00
matches since blank0.009.00
matches since clean sheet3.001.00
matches since win4.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)72.8082.40
possession avg (last 5)42.0056.20
rest days8.238.00
scorer concentration0.250.22
season ppg0.812.22
skill v1-0.891.09
sot against avg (last 5)5.002.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.706.20
sot for avg (last 3)5.007.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.007.00
state index-1.200.61
sterile dominance v1-0.61-0.02
threat rate (last 10)0.280.32
threat rate (last 3)0.260.32
threat rate (last 5)0.240.32
venue ppg (last 5)0.201.40