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Bursaspor 1–2 Genclerbirligi

← Süper Lig 2016 · Sun, May 28, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Alper Ulusoy, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Bursaspor win61%1.60
Draw22%4.47
Genclerbirligi win17%5.70

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

16'⚽Cristóbal Jorquera · Bursaspor
44'🟨Erdem Özgenç · Bursaspor
50'🟨Aziz Behich · Bursaspor
53'🟨Ricardo Faty · Bursaspor
64'🟨Sergei Politevich · Genclerbirligi
68'🟨Uğur Çiftçi · Genclerbirligi
72'⚽Tokelo Rantie · Genclerbirligi
80'🟨Marko Milinkovic · Genclerbirligi
90'⚽Kamal Issah · Genclerbirligi

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBursasporGenclerbirligi
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.430.41
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.490.38
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.410.36
box share (last 5)0.560.66
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days120.00208.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.064.38
elo1393.99
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueBursa Büyükşehir Stadyumu
1487.49
elo momentum (last 5)-63.48-18.94
eye test v1-0.760.02
eye trend v1-0.010.24
first sub minute (last 10)51.3043.70
form points (last 5)0.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-3.60-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)4.001.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.400.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.990.74
keeper form v10.520.73
league points35.0040.00
league rank15.0011.00
matches since blank1.002.00
matches since clean sheet5.003.00
matches since win5.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.4072.40
possession avg (last 5)43.6045.60
rest days7.885.83
scorer concentration0.260.42
season ppg1.091.25
skill v1-0.41-0.68
sot against avg (last 5)7.003.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.403.90
sot for avg (last 3)4.005.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.004.80
state index-1.72-0.54
sterile dominance v10.30-0.57
threat rate (last 10)0.200.22
threat rate (last 3)0.190.26
threat rate (last 5)0.150.26
venue ppg (last 5)1.200.80