⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Fenerbahce 1–1 Trabzonspor

← Süper Lig 2016 · Sat, May 27, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Ali Palabiyik, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Fenerbahce win54%1.81
Draw27%3.65
Trabzonspor win19%5.05

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

16'🟨Emmanuel Emenike · Fenerbahce
23'⚽Moussa Sow · Fenerbahce
27'🟨Matúš Bero · Trabzonspor
54'⚽Matúš Bero · Trabzonspor
55'🟨Martin Škrtel · Fenerbahce
62'🟨İsmail Köybaşı · Fenerbahce
65'🟨Fabian Castillo · Trabzonspor
71'🟨Olcay Şahan · Trabzonspor
77'🟨Dame N'Doye · Trabzonspor
79'🟨Carl Medjani · Trabzonspor
90'🟨Salih Uçan · Fenerbahce

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricFenerbahceTrabzonspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.380.44
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.310.24
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.310.35
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.00
box share (last 5)0.450.65
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days299.00330.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueŞükrü Saracoğlu Stadı
3.00
4.00
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.800.20
corners against avg (last 5)6.004.40
corners for avg (last 5)4.204.60
corners volatility (last 10)3.232.25
elo1763.741626.10
elo momentum (last 5)-0.01-23.09
eye test v1-0.660.23
eye trend v1-0.54-0.63
first sub minute (last 10)58.4064.60
form points (last 5)10.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.40-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.800.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.200.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.971.17
h2 goals (last 10)1.101.00
h2h win rate (last 5)0.800.20
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.35
keeper form v10.740.68
league points73.0063.00
league rank2.005.00
matches since blank1.000.00
matches since clean sheet4.000.00
matches since win0.005.00
pass acc avg (last 5)73.8077.00
possession avg (last 5)49.8054.40
rest days5.005.92
scorer concentration0.220.16
season ppg1.921.66
skill v1-0.240.41
sot against avg (last 5)5.202.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.405.10
sot for avg (last 3)2.333.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.204.40
squad age28.5427.95
state index0.87-0.03
sterile dominance v10.230.06
threat rate (last 10)0.220.25
threat rate (last 3)0.140.26
threat rate (last 5)0.190.27
venue ppg (last 5)1.802.20