⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Kayserispor 1–1 Adana Demirspor

← Süper Lig 2016 · Sat, May 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Tolga Ozkalfa, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Kayserispor win69%1.41
Draw18%5.39
Adana Demirspor win13%7.56

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

29'🟨Hakan Aslantaş · Kayserispor
34'⚽Samba Sow · Kayserispor
68'🟨Rajko Rotman · Kayserispor
81'⚽Renan Foguinho · Adana Demirspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricKayserisporAdana Demirspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.37
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.400.39
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.310.34
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.520.55
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days139.0018.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d3.003.00
corner diff avg (last 5)1.00-3.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueKadir Has Stadium
corners against avg (last 5)3.608.00
corners for avg (last 5)4.604.60
corners volatility (last 10)3.062.15
elo1524.161380.23
elo momentum (last 5)15.36-5.66
eye test v1-0.15-0.94
eye trend v10.350.12
first sub minute (last 10)61.8053.10
form points (last 5)9.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.20-1.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.802.40
goals for avg (last 5)2.001.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.820.88
h2 goals (last 10)1.100.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.15
keeper form v10.630.77
league points41.0029.00
league rank16.0020.00
matches since blank15.005.00
matches since clean sheet2.001.00
matches since win0.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.4071.60
possession avg (last 5)52.6045.20
rest days8.007.00
scorer concentration0.320.25
season ppg1.140.81
skill v10.22-0.78
sot against avg (last 5)4.806.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.103.20
sot for avg (last 3)5.003.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.802.60
squad age28.1026.38
state index0.18-0.81
sterile dominance v10.10-0.06
threat rate (last 10)0.230.19
threat rate (last 3)0.290.20
threat rate (last 5)0.240.18
venue ppg (last 5)1.400.60