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Rizespor 2–0 Gaziantep

← Süper Lig 2016 · Sat, May 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Yasar Kemal Ugurlu, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Rizespor win61%1.61
Draw21%4.55
Gaziantep win18%5.49

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

26'⚽Bright Edomwonyi · Rizespor
32'🟨Robin Yalçın · Rizespor
40'🟨Doğanay Kılıç · Gaziantep
62'🟨Matic Fink · Rizespor
81'⚽Leonard Kweuke · Rizespor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricRizesporGaziantep
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.320.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.440.39
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.400.34
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
box share (last 5)0.700.48
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days901.0080.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueÇaykur Didi Stadyumu
4.00
3.00
corner diff avg (last 5)0.400.40
corners against avg (last 5)4.603.80
corners for avg (last 5)5.004.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.813.16
elo1454.661417.78
elo momentum (last 5)4.06-8.04
eye test v10.30-0.75
eye trend v10.34-0.02
first sub minute (last 10)58.2057.70
form points (last 5)4.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.20-1.40
goals against avg (last 5)2.602.20
goals for avg (last 5)2.800.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.791.32
h2 goals (last 10)1.000.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.10
keeper form v10.670.66
league points29.0028.00
league rank20.0021.00
matches since blank7.002.00
matches since clean sheet2.003.00
matches since win2.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.6070.20
possession avg (last 5)42.6041.80
rest days7.885.92
scorer concentration0.270.25
season ppg0.780.76
skill v1-0.25-1.16
sot against avg (last 5)6.204.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.003.70
sot for avg (last 3)5.333.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.803.00
squad age25.2325.88
state index-0.32-0.73
sterile dominance v1-0.63-0.61
threat rate (last 10)0.270.28
threat rate (last 3)0.260.24
threat rate (last 5)0.280.22
venue ppg (last 5)1.001.80