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Bursaspor 0–2 Besiktas

← Süper Lig 2016 · Mon, May 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Bulent Yildirim, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Besiktas win78%1.25
Draw14%6.83
Bursaspor win8%11.94

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

24'🟨Bilal Kisa · Bursaspor
29'🟨Tomáš Sivok · Bursaspor
45'🟨Ricardo Quaresma · Besiktas
50'🟨Ertuğrul Ersoy · Bursaspor
65'⚽Cenk Tosun · Besiktas
83'🟨Cristóbal Jorquera · Bursaspor
85'🟨Ryan Babel · Besiktas
89'🟨Şamil Çinaz · Bursaspor
90'⚽Vincent Aboubakar · Besiktas

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBursasporBesiktas
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.380.37
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.340.40
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.39
box share (last 5)0.610.63
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days107.00714.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.923.65
elo1406.33
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueBursa Büyükşehir Stadyumu
1659.42
elo momentum (last 5)-45.96-9.68
eye test v1-0.681.34
eye trend v1-0.280.05
first sub minute (last 10)52.4054.60
form points (last 5)3.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-2.800.00
goals against avg (last 5)3.602.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.802.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.031.49
keeper form v10.480.66
league points35.0065.00
league rank15.002.00
matches since blank0.007.00
matches since clean sheet3.006.00
matches since win3.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.4077.40
possession avg (last 5)47.6050.60
rest days8.178.04
scorer concentration0.270.22
season ppg1.172.17
skill v1-0.120.19
sot against avg (last 5)6.004.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.106.30
sot for avg (last 3)3.007.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.207.00
state index-1.250.20
sterile dominance v10.40-0.88
threat rate (last 10)0.200.32
threat rate (last 3)0.150.34
threat rate (last 5)0.170.36
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.00