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Alanyaspor 4–2 Kardemir Karabukspor

← Süper Lig 2016 · Sun, May 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Umit Ozturk, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Alanyaspor win58%1.68
Draw22%4.38
Kardemir Karabukspor win19%5.02

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

17'⚽ (pen)Yevhen Seleznyov · Kardemir Karabukspor
44'⚽Vagner Love · Alanyaspor
45'🟨Barış Başdaş · Kardemir Karabukspor
48'⚽Vagner Love · Alanyaspor
63'🟨Daniel Candeias · Alanyaspor
64'🟨Isaac Sackey · Alanyaspor
67'⚽Vagner Love · Alanyaspor
68'🟨Vagner Love · Alanyaspor
69'⚽Mustapha Yatabaré · Kardemir Karabukspor
75'🟨André Poko · Kardemir Karabukspor
78'⚽Daniel Candeias · Alanyaspor
90'🟨Mustapha Yatabaré · Kardemir Karabukspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAlanyasporKardemir Karabukspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.390.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.400.23
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.380.28
box share (last 5)0.550.65
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days895.00102.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.193.23
elo
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueAlanya Oba Stadyumu
1484.10
1475.39
elo momentum (last 5)8.29-15.50
eye test v10.20-0.25
eye trend v10.04-0.08
first sub minute (last 10)64.3060.90
form points (last 5)9.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.00-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.800.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.800.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.521.06
keeper form v10.650.78
league points37.0039.00
league rank13.0011.00
matches since blank1.001.00
matches since clean sheet9.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.8075.80
possession avg (last 5)47.2053.80
rest days8.005.96
scorer concentration0.300.23
season ppg1.231.30
skill v10.200.25
sot against avg (last 5)4.203.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.203.80
sot for avg (last 3)4.333.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.603.60
state index0.06-0.48
sterile dominance v1-0.130.14
threat rate (last 10)0.230.24
threat rate (last 3)0.240.26
threat rate (last 5)0.250.24
venue ppg (last 5)1.800.40