⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Osmanlispor 0–4 Akhisarspor

← Süper Lig 2016 · Sun, May 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Baris Simsek, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Osmanlispor win48%2.05
Draw28%3.48
Akhisarspor win24%4.00

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

15'🟨Custodio · Akhisarspor
26'🟨Numan Çürüksu · Osmanlispor
27'⚽Custodio · Akhisarspor
45'🟨Raul Rusescu · Osmanlispor
49'⚽Özer Hurmacı · Akhisarspor
59'⚽Olcan Adın · Akhisarspor
64'⚽ (og)Vaclav Prochazka · Akhisarspor
87'🟨Ömer Bayram · Akhisarspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricOsmanlisporAkhisarspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.300.45
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.280.56
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.320.51
box share (last 5)0.520.68
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days74.0074.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.572.22
elo1507.57
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueOsmanlı Stadyumu
1499.21
elo momentum (last 5)-3.2354.84
eye test v10.090.89
eye trend v1-0.360.37
first sub minute (last 10)60.6061.20
form points (last 5)7.0012.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.202.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.003.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.321.93
keeper form v10.710.77
league points38.0039.00
league rank12.0010.00
matches since blank0.007.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win2.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.0075.80
possession avg (last 5)54.6045.20
rest days5.835.83
scorer concentration0.270.23
season ppg1.271.30
skill v10.53-0.35
sot against avg (last 5)2.603.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.505.00
sot for avg (last 3)3.677.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.406.20
state index-0.240.63
sterile dominance v10.27-0.69
threat rate (last 10)0.290.27
threat rate (last 3)0.220.28
threat rate (last 5)0.250.29
venue ppg (last 5)0.400.60