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Fenerbahce 0–1 Antalyaspor

← Süper Lig 2016 · Sat, May 13, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Mete Kalkavan, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Fenerbahce win59%1.66
Draw23%4.31
Antalyaspor win19%5.24

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

5'🟨Roman Neustädter · Fenerbahce
23'🟨Mostapha El Kabir · Antalyaspor
26'🟨Mbilla Etame · Antalyaspor
40'🟨Ondřej Čelůstka · Antalyaspor
41'🟨Alper Potuk · Fenerbahce
47'⚽Deniz Kadah · Antalyaspor
57'🟨Deniz Kadah · Antalyaspor
66'🟨Hasan Ali Kaldırım · Fenerbahce
90'🟨Chico · Antalyaspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricFenerbahceAntalyaspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.380.39
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.270.39
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.370.47
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.620.49
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days285.00224.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueŞükrü Saracoğlu Stadı
4.00
4.00
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.400.40
corners against avg (last 5)8.004.00
corners for avg (last 5)5.604.40
corners volatility (last 10)3.091.35
elo1774.381568.32
elo momentum (last 5)25.08-24.61
eye test v1-0.220.75
eye trend v1-0.50-0.07
first sub minute (last 10)55.6049.00
form points (last 5)13.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.00-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)0.601.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.841.58
h2 goals (last 10)0.900.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.35
keeper form v10.730.77
league points70.0050.00
league rank2.008.00
matches since blank11.000.00
matches since clean sheet2.006.00
matches since win1.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)73.2076.60
possession avg (last 5)49.0054.00
rest days6.007.88
scorer concentration0.230.32
season ppg1.941.43
skill v1-0.350.34
sot against avg (last 5)5.604.40
sot for avg (last 10)5.105.30
sot for avg (last 3)3.335.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.206.20
squad age27.7828.98
state index1.14-0.22
sterile dominance v1-0.030.26
threat rate (last 10)0.250.26
threat rate (last 3)0.220.25
threat rate (last 5)0.220.24
venue ppg (last 5)2.001.60