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Kayserispor 2–1 Konyaspor

← Süper Lig 2016 · Fri, May 12, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Halis Ozkahya, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Kayserispor win67%1.47
Draw21%4.76
Konyaspor win13%7.57

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

25'⚽Larrys Mabiala · Kayserispor
41'⚽ (og)Ali Ahamada · Konyaspor
45'🟨Hakan Aslantaş · Kayserispor
59'⚽Raheem Lawal · Kayserispor
74'🟨Ömer Ali Şahiner · Konyaspor
79'🟨Mehmet Uslu · Konyaspor
90'🟨Ryan Mendes · Kayserispor
90'🟨Welliton · Kayserispor
90'🟨Marc Kibong Mbamba · Konyaspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricKayserisporKonyaspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.270.25
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.290.33
box share (last 5)0.530.35
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days131.00954.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.062.21
elo1476.16
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueKadir Has Stadium
1468.42
elo momentum (last 5)-2.31-9.25
eye test v1-0.34-0.50
eye trend v1-0.10-0.27
first sub minute (last 10)59.0050.80
form points (last 5)6.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.200.00
goals against avg (last 5)2.001.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.801.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.030.99
keeper form v10.590.50
league points33.0040.00
league rank15.008.00
matches since blank12.001.00
matches since clean sheet1.001.00
matches since win0.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.2080.20
possession avg (last 5)51.2053.60
rest days6.176.04
scorer concentration0.330.50
season ppg1.101.33
skill v10.110.68
sot against avg (last 5)5.203.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.203.30
sot for avg (last 3)3.672.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.403.40
state index-0.19-0.37
sterile dominance v10.040.95
threat rate (last 10)0.250.17
threat rate (last 3)0.270.12
threat rate (last 5)0.240.16
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.60