⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Kardemir Karabukspor 1–0 Osmanlispor

← Süper Lig 2016 · Mon, May 8, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Suat Arslanboga, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Osmanlispor win43%2.29
Kardemir Karabukspor win30%3.30
Draw28%3.51

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

37'🟨Ceyhun Gülselam · Kardemir Karabukspor
52'🟨Dany Nounkeu · Kardemir Karabukspor
64'🟨Thievy Bifouma · Osmanlispor
64'⚽ (pen)Yevhen Seleznyov · Kardemir Karabukspor
70'🟨Paul Papp · Kardemir Karabukspor
90'🟨Ólafur Ingi Skúlason · Kardemir Karabukspor
90'🟨Raul Rusescu · Osmanlispor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricKardemir KarabuksporOsmanlispor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.250.35
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.310.32
box share (last 5)0.650.56
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days96.0068.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.952.98
elo
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueDr. Necmettin Şeyhoğlu Stadium
1465.63
1517.33
elo momentum (last 5)-20.64-1.75
eye test v1-0.160.36
eye trend v1-0.27-0.26
first sub minute (last 10)59.6060.30
form points (last 5)3.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.800.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.601.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.141.83
keeper form v10.760.70
league points36.0038.00
league rank13.0011.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win5.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.2078.80
possession avg (last 5)52.8053.60
rest days10.007.00
scorer concentration0.230.27
season ppg1.241.31
skill v10.220.54
sot against avg (last 5)4.803.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.805.30
sot for avg (last 3)2.675.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.804.80
state index-0.530.08
sterile dominance v10.13-0.02
threat rate (last 10)0.230.31
threat rate (last 3)0.220.27
threat rate (last 5)0.240.28
venue ppg (last 5)2.001.80