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Akhisarspor 6–0 Gaziantep

← Süper Lig 2016 · Mon, May 8, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Halil Umut Meler, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Akhisarspor win49%2.01
Draw26%3.71
Gaziantep win25%3.87

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

43'⚽ (og)Wallace Reis · Akhisarspor
58'⚽Sokol Cikalleshi · Akhisarspor
61'⚽Sokol Cikalleshi · Akhisarspor
72'⚽Ricardo Vaz Tê · Akhisarspor
83'⚽ (pen)Ricardo Vaz Tê · Akhisarspor
85'🟨Khaly Thiam · Gaziantep
87'⚽Daniel Larsson · Akhisarspor
88'🟨Elyasa Süme · Gaziantep

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAkhisarsporGaziantep
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.430.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.510.25
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.480.26
box share (last 5)0.670.51
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days68.0068.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.262.83
elo1485.30
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueManisa 19 Mayis
1420.07
elo momentum (last 5)31.0915.93
eye test v10.49-1.08
eye trend v10.41-0.49
first sub minute (last 10)58.7059.40
form points (last 5)9.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.800.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.00
goals for avg (last 5)2.201.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.421.32
keeper form v10.750.76
league points36.0026.00
league rank12.0017.00
matches since blank6.000.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win0.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)72.8067.80
possession avg (last 5)43.6043.40
rest days8.2910.00
scorer concentration0.220.26
season ppg1.240.90
skill v1-0.77-1.29
sot against avg (last 5)4.603.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.503.50
sot for avg (last 3)6.332.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.402.40
state index0.47-0.06
sterile dominance v1-0.84-0.64
threat rate (last 10)0.260.28
threat rate (last 3)0.320.19
threat rate (last 5)0.280.22
venue ppg (last 5)2.402.00