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Besiktas 1–1 Fenerbahce

← Süper Lig 2016 · Sun, May 7, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Firat Aydinus, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Besiktas win54%1.79
Draw26%3.80
Fenerbahce win20%4.91

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

28'🟨Volkan Demirel · Fenerbahce
45'⚽Vincent Aboubakar · Besiktas
61'🟨Salih Uçan · Fenerbahce
65'🟨Tolgay Arslan · Besiktas
81'🟨Martin Škrtel · Fenerbahce
88'🟨Martin Škrtel · Fenerbahce
88'🟥Martin Škrtel · Fenerbahce
90'🟨Souza · Fenerbahce
90'🟨Emmanuel Emenike · Fenerbahce
90'🟨Souza · Fenerbahce
90'🟥Souza · Fenerbahce
90'⚽ (og)Marcelo · Fenerbahce

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBesiktasFenerbahce
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.37
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.350.36
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.37
box share (last 5)0.620.61
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days706.00279.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.243.08
elo1662.14
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueVodafone Park
1625.30
elo momentum (last 5)1.8614.18
eye test v11.040.36
eye trend v10.37-0.22
first sub minute (last 10)52.0058.20
form points (last 5)9.0012.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.200.80
goals against avg (last 5)2.401.00
goals for avg (last 5)2.601.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.490.97
keeper form v10.660.70
league points64.0056.00
league rank1.003.00
matches since blank6.009.00
matches since clean sheet5.001.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.6075.40
possession avg (last 5)51.8051.20
rest days7.007.13
scorer concentration0.220.23
season ppg2.211.93
skill v10.290.03
sot against avg (last 5)5.204.80
sot for avg (last 10)5.905.10
sot for avg (last 3)7.674.33
sot for avg (last 5)6.205.00
state index0.640.71
sterile dominance v1-0.73-0.24
threat rate (last 10)0.310.25
threat rate (last 3)0.420.23
threat rate (last 5)0.350.27
venue ppg (last 5)2.602.00