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Trabzonspor 2–3 Kayserispor

← Süper Lig 2016 · Sat, May 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Alper Ulusoy, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Trabzonspor win61%1.61
Draw23%4.27
Kayserispor win16%5.95

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

6'⚽Deniz Türüç · Kayserispor
23'🟨Rajko Rotman · Kayserispor
33'⚽Hugo Rodallega · Trabzonspor
41'⚽Raheem Lawal · Kayserispor
44'🟨Larrys Mabiala · Kayserispor
45'⚽ (pen)Uğur Demirok · Trabzonspor
62'🟨Uğur Demirok · Trabzonspor
68'🟨Ján Ďurica · Trabzonspor
74'🟨Raheem Lawal · Kayserispor
75'⚽Raheem Lawal · Kayserispor
78'🟨Erkan Kaş · Kayserispor
84'🟨Samba Sow · Kayserispor
90'🟨Ogenyi Onazi · Trabzonspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score2

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricTrabzonsporKayserispor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.450.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.570.21
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.540.29
box share (last 5)0.550.57
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days491.00125.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.212.83
elo1566.99
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueMedical Park Stadyumu
1461.73
elo momentum (last 5)29.50-31.12
eye test v10.58-0.17
eye trend v10.21-0.29
first sub minute (last 10)57.3056.20
form points (last 5)10.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.00-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)0.802.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.801.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.180.99
keeper form v10.820.62
league points48.0030.00
league rank5.0015.00
matches since blank0.0011.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.6080.40
possession avg (last 5)48.6057.00
rest days6.887.00
scorer concentration0.170.36
season ppg1.661.03
skill v1-0.130.94
sot against avg (last 5)2.805.60
sot for avg (last 10)5.404.10
sot for avg (last 3)6.333.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.403.60
state index0.57-0.47
sterile dominance v1-0.110.71
threat rate (last 10)0.250.25
threat rate (last 3)0.260.25
threat rate (last 5)0.240.22
venue ppg (last 5)1.601.40