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Fenerbahce 2–1 Rizespor

← Süper Lig 2016 · Sun, Apr 30, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Ali Palabiyik, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Fenerbahce win72%1.36
Draw18%5.57
Rizespor win11%9.05

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

3'⚽Moussa Sow · Fenerbahce
14'⚽Oğuzhan Aynaoğlu · Rizespor
48'🟨Marwane Saadane · Rizespor
60'🟨Hasan Ali Kaldırım · Fenerbahce
86'🟨Mohamed Ali Yaakoubi · Rizespor
90'🟨Mehmet Topal · Fenerbahce
90'🟨Marwane Saadane · Rizespor
90'🟥Marwane Saadane · Rizespor
90'⚽Moussa Sow · Fenerbahce

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricFenerbahceRizespor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.440.30
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.380.33
box share (last 5)0.640.65
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days272.00881.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.172.78
elo1621.58
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueŞükrü Saracoğlu Stadı
1425.31
elo momentum (last 5)18.26-2.50
eye test v1-0.010.07
eye trend v10.040.06
first sub minute (last 10)61.9053.60
form points (last 5)12.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.80-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.60
goals for avg (last 5)2.001.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.061.20
keeper form v10.730.64
league points53.0024.00
league rank3.0017.00
matches since blank8.002.00
matches since clean sheet0.009.00
matches since win0.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.6076.00
possession avg (last 5)49.6046.20
rest days6.888.10
scorer concentration0.190.29
season ppg1.890.86
skill v1-0.06-0.26
sot against avg (last 5)4.604.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.604.20
sot for avg (last 3)4.334.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.204.20
state index0.66-0.48
sterile dominance v1-0.06-0.64
threat rate (last 10)0.230.28
threat rate (last 3)0.210.33
threat rate (last 5)0.240.29
venue ppg (last 5)1.600.60