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Trabzonspor 0–0 Genclerbirligi

← Süper Lig 2016 · Sat, Apr 29, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Firat Aydinus, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Trabzonspor win61%1.61
Draw24%4.15
Genclerbirligi win16%6.14

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

72'🟨Johannes Hopf · Genclerbirligi
73'🟨Yusuf Yazıcı · Trabzonspor
75'🟨Ahmet Oğuz · Genclerbirligi
86'🟨Ahmet Oğuz · Genclerbirligi
86'🟥Ahmet Oğuz · Genclerbirligi
90'🟨Aleksandar Šćekić · Genclerbirligi

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricTrabzonsporGenclerbirligi
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.460.43
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.580.35
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.580.44
box share (last 5)0.540.46
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days484.00179.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.961.69
elo
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueMedical Park Stadyumu
1570.24
1513.25
elo momentum (last 5)48.0713.48
eye test v10.55-0.64
eye trend v1-0.010.05
first sub minute (last 10)59.7046.30
form points (last 5)12.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.400.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.00
goals for avg (last 5)2.401.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.290.88
keeper form v1—0.76
league points47.0039.00
league rank5.008.00
matches since blank7.003.00
matches since clean sheet0.001.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.4067.40
possession avg (last 5)50.6041.00
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.170.46
season ppg1.681.39
skill v10.19-1.49
sot against avg (last 5)3.404.60
sot for avg (last 10)5.403.60
sot for avg (last 3)5.334.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.403.40
state index0.89-0.01
sterile dominance v10.42-0.61
threat rate (last 10)0.230.21
threat rate (last 3)0.210.25
threat rate (last 5)0.190.20
venue ppg (last 5)2.000.60