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Antalyaspor 0–3 Trabzonspor

← Süper Lig 2016 · Sat, Apr 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Yasar Kemal Ugurlu, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Antalyaspor win41%2.38
Trabzonspor win32%3.03
Draw27%3.63

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

35'🟨Mbilla Etame · Antalyaspor
40'🟨Ondřej Čelůstka · Antalyaspor
51'⚽Hugo Rodallega · Trabzonspor
55'⚽Uğur Demirok · Trabzonspor
60'🟨Samuel Eto'o · Antalyaspor
60'🟨Esteban Alvarado · Trabzonspor
64'🟨Dame N'Doye · Trabzonspor
65'⚽Hugo Rodallega · Trabzonspor
76'🟨Ramon Motta · Antalyaspor
83'🟨Serdar Özkan · Antalyaspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAntalyasporTrabzonspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.380.42
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.480.56
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.450.53
box share (last 5)0.570.49
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days203.00477.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.171.75
elo1534.27
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueAntalya Stadyumu
1550.55
elo momentum (last 5)8.1035.82
eye test v10.880.68
eye trend v10.24-0.01
first sub minute (last 10)49.0056.60
form points (last 5)8.0012.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.201.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.402.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.821.25
keeper form v10.800.82
league points43.0044.00
league rank6.005.00
matches since blank2.006.00
matches since clean sheet2.001.00
matches since win1.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.8077.00
possession avg (last 5)50.6050.40
rest days14.1514.00
scorer concentration0.280.19
season ppg1.591.63
skill v1-0.070.14
sot against avg (last 5)3.603.40
sot for avg (last 10)5.005.10
sot for avg (last 3)6.334.67
sot for avg (last 5)6.205.80
state index0.240.73
sterile dominance v1-0.460.12
threat rate (last 10)0.260.24
threat rate (last 3)0.260.21
threat rate (last 5)0.290.23
venue ppg (last 5)2.002.60