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Genclerbirligi 2–1 Kayserispor

← Süper Lig 2016 · Sat, Apr 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Halis Ozkahya, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Genclerbirligi win40%2.46
Draw31%3.17
Kayserispor win30%3.29

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

23'⚽Serdar Gürler · Genclerbirligi
33'⚽Serdar Gürler · Genclerbirligi
37'⚽ (pen)Deniz Türüç · Kayserispor
71'🟨Larrys Mabiala · Kayserispor
80'🟨Deniz Türüç · Kayserispor
86'🟨Güray Vural · Kayserispor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGenclerbirligiKayserispor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.400.39
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.420.35
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.450.40
box share (last 5)0.540.54
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days172.00111.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.562.31
elo
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueAnkara 19 Mayıs Stadyumu
1506.43
1451.87
elo momentum (last 5)0.10-36.58
eye test v1-0.78-0.05
eye trend v1-0.03-0.32
first sub minute (last 10)46.1057.20
form points (last 5)7.002.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.40-1.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.402.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.821.29
keeper form v10.780.64
league points36.0027.00
league rank10.0015.00
matches since blank2.009.00
matches since clean sheet0.006.00
matches since win0.005.00
pass acc avg (last 5)68.6079.80
possession avg (last 5)39.8052.80
rest days10.0613.13
scorer concentration0.410.33
season ppg1.331.00
skill v1-1.450.59
sot against avg (last 5)6.205.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.204.70
sot for avg (last 3)2.674.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.004.00
state index0.02-0.80
sterile dominance v1-0.490.60
threat rate (last 10)0.210.25
threat rate (last 3)0.180.20
threat rate (last 5)0.180.20
venue ppg (last 5)2.201.60