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Gaziantep 0–1 Genclerbirligi

← Süper Lig 2016 · Wed, Apr 12, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Mete Kalkavan, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Gaziantep win39%2.48
Genclerbirligi win34%2.90
Draw27%3.61

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

19'🟨İlhan Parlak · Gaziantep
45'🟨Aydin Karabulut · Genclerbirligi
69'⚽Serdar Gürler · Genclerbirligi
70'🟨Nabil Ghilas · Gaziantep
72'🟨Mohammed Fatau · Gaziantep
76'🟨Sergei Politevich · Genclerbirligi

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGaziantepGenclerbirligi
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.41
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.330.49
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.340.51
box share (last 5)0.690.63
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days42.00162.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.342.17
elo1415.96
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueGaziantep Stadium
1497.04
elo momentum (last 5)6.142.59
eye test v10.09-0.35
eye trend v10.16-0.01
first sub minute (last 10)54.1043.50
form points (last 5)6.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.20-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)2.001.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.801.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.290.88
keeper form v10.700.75
league points22.0033.00
league rank17.0013.00
matches since blank3.001.00
matches since clean sheet1.002.00
matches since win1.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)68.6068.80
possession avg (last 5)40.2038.20
rest days4.064.08
scorer concentration0.290.38
season ppg0.851.27
skill v1-1.43-1.55
sot against avg (last 5)6.206.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.903.50
sot for avg (last 3)4.003.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.403.80
state index-0.41-0.36
sterile dominance v1-1.68-0.81
threat rate (last 10)0.280.22
threat rate (last 3)0.340.18
threat rate (last 5)0.340.21
venue ppg (last 5)0.800.00