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Kayserispor 1–4 Osmanlispor

← Süper Lig 2016 · Sun, Apr 9, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Mete Kalkavan, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Kayserispor win44%2.21
Osmanlispor win28%3.48
Draw28%3.50

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

11'🟨Vaclav Prochazka · Osmanlispor
15'⚽Aminu Umar · Osmanlispor
23'🟨Larrys Mabiala · Kayserispor
39'⚽ (pen)Deniz Türüç · Kayserispor
44'⚽ (pen)Aminu Umar · Osmanlispor
45'🟨Pierre Webo · Osmanlispor
55'⚽Mehmet Güven · Osmanlispor
63'🟨Mehmet Güven · Osmanlispor
67'⚽ (pen)Pierre Webo · Osmanlispor
72'🟨Samba Sow · Kayserispor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score2

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricKayserisporOsmanlispor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.410.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.480.34
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.420.31
box share (last 5)0.570.50
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days98.0039.00
congestion 21d1.001.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.283.23
elo1471.49
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueKadir Has Stadium
1489.10
elo momentum (last 5)-0.41-50.53
eye test v10.150.37
eye trend v1-0.100.07
first sub minute (last 10)57.2063.80
form points (last 5)5.001.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.00-1.00
goals against avg (last 5)2.401.60
goals for avg (last 5)2.400.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.411.60
keeper form v10.660.71
league points27.0031.00
league rank15.0013.00
matches since blank8.000.00
matches since clean sheet5.007.00
matches since win4.006.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.0074.40
possession avg (last 5)51.8051.20
rest days7.886.98
scorer concentration0.330.26
season ppg1.041.19
skill v10.54-0.07
sot against avg (last 5)5.206.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.804.70
sot for avg (last 3)4.675.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.404.80
state index-0.14-0.88
sterile dominance v10.43-0.63
threat rate (last 10)0.240.30
threat rate (last 3)0.200.29
threat rate (last 5)0.220.32
venue ppg (last 5)2.001.00