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Gaziantep 2–3 Alanyaspor

← Süper Lig 2016 · Sat, Apr 8, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Firat Aydinus, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Alanyaspor win38%2.56
Gaziantep win34%2.85
Draw28%3.54

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

22'⚽Vagner Love · Alanyaspor
68'⚽Junior Fernandes · Alanyaspor
71'⚽Daniel Candeias · Alanyaspor
87'⚽Marquinhos Pedroso · Gaziantep
90'🟨Birol Parlak · Alanyaspor
90'⚽ (pen)Nabil Ghilas · Gaziantep

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGaziantepAlanyaspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.39
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.320.32
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.410.36
box share (last 5)0.660.58
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days38.00859.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.343.47
elo1425.83
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueGaziantep Stadium
1490.45
elo momentum (last 5)19.6932.75
eye test v10.340.13
eye trend v10.32-0.10
first sub minute (last 10)55.8061.60
form points (last 5)7.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.001.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.602.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.291.25
keeper form v10.740.65
league points22.0031.00
league rank16.0012.00
matches since blank2.005.00
matches since clean sheet0.005.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)66.8078.00
possession avg (last 5)39.0047.60
rest days5.987.00
scorer concentration0.300.29
season ppg0.881.19
skill v1-1.690.04
sot against avg (last 5)6.803.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.904.20
sot for avg (last 3)4.673.67
sot for avg (last 5)5.004.60
state index-0.200.27
sterile dominance v1-1.88-0.20
threat rate (last 10)0.300.23
threat rate (last 3)0.410.25
threat rate (last 5)0.350.26
venue ppg (last 5)0.800.80