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Genclerbirligi 1–1 Antalyaspor

← Süper Lig 2016 · Sat, Apr 8, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Huseyin Gocek, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Genclerbirligi win44%2.20
Draw29%3.38
Antalyaspor win27%3.64

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

7'⚽Aydin Karabulut · Genclerbirligi
12'🟨Sakıb Aytaç · Antalyaspor
25'⚽Samuel Eto'o · Antalyaspor
55'🟨Sergei Politevich · Genclerbirligi
57'🟨Abdulrahman Khalili · Genclerbirligi
61'🟨Deniz Kadah · Antalyaspor
79'🟨Salih Dursun · Antalyaspor
82'🟨Kamal Issah · Genclerbirligi

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGenclerbirligiAntalyaspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.430.37
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.590.38
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.510.34
box share (last 5)0.680.55
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days158.00189.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.391.26
elo
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueAnkara 19 Mayıs Stadyumu
1497.73
1533.57
elo momentum (last 5)-5.81-11.19
eye test v1-0.480.28
eye trend v10.010.21
first sub minute (last 10)46.5046.70
form points (last 5)6.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.40-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.100.97
keeper form v10.720.76
league points32.0042.00
league rank11.006.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet1.001.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)68.2074.80
possession avg (last 5)39.4049.40
rest days5.856.85
scorer concentration0.400.25
season ppg1.281.62
skill v1-1.52-0.16
sot against avg (last 5)6.603.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.904.70
sot for avg (last 3)3.335.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.604.80
state index0.020.03
sterile dominance v1-0.64-0.51
threat rate (last 10)0.220.26
threat rate (last 3)0.150.30
threat rate (last 5)0.190.29
venue ppg (last 5)2.602.00