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Bursaspor 3–0 Kardemir Karabukspor

← Süper Lig 2016 · Fri, Apr 7, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Yasar Kemal Ugurlu, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Bursaspor win49%2.01
Draw28%3.45
Kardemir Karabukspor win23%4.20

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

27'🟨Valerică Găman · Kardemir Karabukspor
30'🟨Sercan Yildirim · Bursaspor
45'🟨Pablo Batalla · Bursaspor
52'🟨Ertuğrul Ersoy · Bursaspor
57'⚽Kubilay Kanatsızkuş · Bursaspor
76'🟨Dany Nounkeu · Kardemir Karabukspor
80'🟨Cristian Tănase · Kardemir Karabukspor
83'🟨Paul Papp · Kardemir Karabukspor
90'🟨André Poko · Kardemir Karabukspor
90'⚽Sercan Yildirim · Bursaspor
90'⚽ (pen)Erdem Özgenç · Bursaspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBursasporKardemir Karabukspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.420.38
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.420.36
box share (last 5)0.590.55
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days69.0065.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.842.76
elo
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueBursa Büyükşehir Stadyumu
1440.91
1482.18
elo momentum (last 5)-34.117.30
eye test v10.360.06
eye trend v10.46-0.00
first sub minute (last 10)57.9054.80
form points (last 5)4.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.400.20
goals against avg (last 5)2.201.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.701.10
keeper form v10.640.80
league points32.0034.00
league rank10.009.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet15.002.00
matches since win3.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.8074.60
possession avg (last 5)49.8051.80
rest days5.046.04
scorer concentration0.260.23
season ppg1.231.31
skill v10.28-0.01
sot against avg (last 5)5.005.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.504.10
sot for avg (last 3)5.004.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.204.60
state index-0.92-0.27
sterile dominance v10.150.01
threat rate (last 10)0.210.25
threat rate (last 3)0.220.22
threat rate (last 5)0.230.24
venue ppg (last 5)0.800.20