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Besiktas 3–0 Genclerbirligi

← Süper Lig 2016 · Sun, Apr 2, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Serkan Cinar, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Besiktas win69%1.42
Draw20%4.96
Genclerbirligi win12%8.28

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

21'🟨Luccas Claro · Genclerbirligi
27'🟨Cenk Tosun · Besiktas
45'🟨Ahmet Oğuz · Genclerbirligi
45'⚽Oğuzhan Özyakup · Besiktas
61'⚽Anderson Talisca · Besiktas
65'🟨Ricardo Quaresma · Besiktas
85'⚽Ryan Babel · Besiktas
90'🟨Renato Escobar Baruffi · Genclerbirligi

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBesiktasGenclerbirligi
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.40
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.370.49
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.42
box share (last 5)0.430.67
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days671.00152.00
congestion 21d3.001.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.803.43
elo1652.09
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueVodafone Park
1505.91
elo momentum (last 5)4.1714.30
eye test v10.51-0.51
eye trend v1-0.05-0.04
first sub minute (last 10)60.1046.50
form points (last 5)9.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.800.60
goals against avg (last 5)0.800.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.231.10
keeper form v10.750.69
league points55.0032.00
league rank1.0011.00
matches since blank0.003.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)82.8069.00
possession avg (last 5)60.6040.60
rest days14.0014.23
scorer concentration0.260.40
season ppg2.201.33
skill v11.44-1.36
sot against avg (last 5)3.005.20
sot for avg (last 10)5.204.50
sot for avg (last 3)5.004.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.803.60
state index0.720.02
sterile dominance v10.71-0.70
threat rate (last 10)0.260.24
threat rate (last 3)0.260.21
threat rate (last 5)0.260.22
venue ppg (last 5)2.600.00