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Antalyaspor 2–1 Kayserispor

← Süper Lig 2016 · Sat, Apr 1, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Firat Aydinus, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Antalyaspor win45%2.19
Draw28%3.50
Kayserispor win28%3.54

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

29'⚽Samuel Eto'o · Antalyaspor
38'🟨Charles · Antalyaspor
38'🟥Erkan Kaş · Kayserispor
40'🟨Charles · Antalyaspor
40'🟥Charles · Antalyaspor
41'🟨Umut Bulut · Kayserispor
45'🟨Rajko Rotman · Kayserispor
45'🟨Güray Vural · Kayserispor
49'⚽Ryan Mendes · Kayserispor
61'🟨Levent Gülen · Kayserispor
80'🟨Danilo · Antalyaspor
90'🟨Mostapha El Kabir · Antalyaspor
90'🟨Sandro · Antalyaspor
90'⚽Mostapha El Kabir · Antalyaspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAntalyasporKayserispor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.40
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.360.45
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.320.37
box share (last 5)0.540.56
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days182.0090.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.262.06
elo1526.59
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueAntalya Stadyumu
1478.48
elo momentum (last 5)-11.4120.31
eye test v10.050.56
eye trend v10.29-0.23
first sub minute (last 10)50.0058.00
form points (last 5)7.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.400.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.402.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.002.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.971.37
keeper form v10.760.63
league points39.0027.00
league rank6.0015.00
matches since blank0.007.00
matches since clean sheet0.004.00
matches since win1.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)73.0081.00
possession avg (last 5)48.0056.20
rest days13.0014.13
scorer concentration0.270.34
season ppg1.561.08
skill v1-0.440.95
sot against avg (last 5)3.404.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.805.10
sot for avg (last 3)5.674.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.405.00
state index-0.030.07
sterile dominance v1-0.630.33
threat rate (last 10)0.260.26
threat rate (last 3)0.350.20
threat rate (last 5)0.280.27
venue ppg (last 5)2.001.60