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Kardemir Karabukspor 0–1 Fenerbahce

← Süper Lig 2016 · Sat, Apr 1, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Bulent Yildirim, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Fenerbahce win51%1.92
Draw27%3.65
Kardemir Karabukspor win22%4.38

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

16'🟨Gregory van der Wiel · Fenerbahce
39'🟨Paul Papp · Kardemir Karabukspor
41'🟨Simon Kjær · Fenerbahce
48'🟨Evgen Seleznev · Kardemir Karabukspor
84'⚽Robin van Persie · Fenerbahce
85'🟨Martin Škrtel · Fenerbahce

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricKardemir KarabuksporFenerbahce
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.340.39
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.39
box share (last 5)0.530.60
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days59.00243.00
congestion 21d1.001.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.502.69
elo
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueDr. Necmettin Şeyhoğlu Stadium
1490.90
1595.74
elo momentum (last 5)9.24-7.77
eye test v1-0.190.89
eye trend v1-0.260.39
first sub minute (last 10)52.8060.00
form points (last 5)7.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.200.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.100.88
keeper form v10.740.61
league points34.0044.00
league rank9.004.00
matches since blank2.005.00
matches since clean sheet1.002.00
matches since win1.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.4078.40
possession avg (last 5)51.4059.60
rest days13.1314.96
scorer concentration0.230.21
season ppg1.361.76
skill v1-0.060.92
sot against avg (last 5)4.804.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.804.30
sot for avg (last 3)3.005.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.006.00
state index0.320.19
sterile dominance v10.040.35
threat rate (last 10)0.250.22
threat rate (last 3)0.180.26
threat rate (last 5)0.230.27
venue ppg (last 5)3.001.00