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Bursaspor 1–3 Alanyaspor

← Süper Lig 2016 · Sun, Mar 19, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Umit Ozturk, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Bursaspor win40%2.43
Alanyaspor win32%3.02
Draw28%3.54

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

20'🟨Ricardo Faty · Bursaspor
27'⚽Efecan Karaca · Alanyaspor
45'🟨Daniel Candeias · Alanyaspor
45'⚽ (pen)Deniz Yilmaz · Bursaspor
54'🟨Ismail Konuk · Bursaspor
55'⚽ (pen)Vagner Love · Alanyaspor
72'🟨Şamil Çinaz · Bursaspor
76'🟨Berkan Emir · Alanyaspor
90'⚽Vagner Love · Alanyaspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBursasporAlanyaspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.480.32
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.390.40
box share (last 5)0.530.63
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days50.00839.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.733.36
elo1470.39
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueBursa Büyükşehir Stadyumu
1457.71
elo momentum (last 5)-16.2721.61
eye test v1-0.43-0.02
eye trend v10.660.12
first sub minute (last 10)60.2056.90
form points (last 5)5.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.000.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.801.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.802.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.791.27
keeper form v10.690.59
league points32.0025.00
league rank10.0015.00
matches since blank2.003.00
matches since clean sheet13.003.00
matches since win1.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)72.8077.40
possession avg (last 5)42.0048.00
rest days8.008.83
scorer concentration0.260.23
season ppg1.331.04
skill v1-0.880.00
sot against avg (last 5)5.604.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.604.00
sot for avg (last 3)6.004.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.004.20
state index-0.44-0.04
sterile dominance v1-0.360.03
threat rate (last 10)0.210.23
threat rate (last 3)0.250.27
threat rate (last 5)0.200.22
venue ppg (last 5)1.400.80