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Kayserispor 3–4 Gaziantep

← Süper Lig 2016 · Sat, Mar 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Huseyin Gocek, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Kayserispor win56%1.75
Draw27%3.65
Gaziantep win18%5.57

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

4'⚽Umut Bulut · Kayserispor
10'⚽Nabil Ghilas · Gaziantep
27'⚽ (pen)Deniz Türüç · Kayserispor
43'⚽İlhan Parlak · Gaziantep
49'⚽Nabil Ghilas · Gaziantep
54'⚽Nabil Ghilas · Gaziantep
58'🟨Marcinho · Gaziantep
66'⚽Deniz Türüç · Kayserispor
69'🟨Khaly Thiam · Gaziantep
73'🟨Jean-Armel Kana-Biyik · Kayserispor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score2

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricKayserisporGaziantep
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.400.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.420.42
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.370.37
box share (last 5)0.550.57
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days76.0017.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.084.18
elo1492.85
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueKadir Has Stadium
1389.76
elo momentum (last 5)49.96-0.21
eye test v10.32-0.47
eye trend v1-0.180.39
first sub minute (last 10)59.9054.80
form points (last 5)11.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.00-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.00
goals for avg (last 5)2.400.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.370.53
keeper form v10.690.74
league points27.0016.00
league rank13.0018.00
matches since blank6.000.00
matches since clean sheet3.003.00
matches since win2.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.2069.60
possession avg (last 5)50.0039.80
rest days5.886.88
scorer concentration0.370.21
season ppg1.130.70
skill v10.22-1.36
sot against avg (last 5)3.805.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.903.80
sot for avg (last 3)4.335.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.603.60
state index0.51-0.85
sterile dominance v1-0.25-0.96
threat rate (last 10)0.260.27
threat rate (last 3)0.240.31
threat rate (last 5)0.280.25
venue ppg (last 5)2.000.20