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Fenerbahce 2–3 Konyaspor

← Süper Lig 2016 · Fri, Mar 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Firat Aydinus, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Fenerbahce win66%1.48
Draw23%4.17
Konyaspor win11%9.13

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

17'⚽Riad Bajić · Konyaspor
20'⚽Martin Škrtel · Fenerbahce
22'⚽Riad Bajić · Konyaspor
54'⚽Ömer Ali Şahiner · Konyaspor
63'🟨Gregory van der Wiel · Fenerbahce
67'🟨Hasan Ali Kaldırım · Fenerbahce
72'⚽Moussa Sow · Fenerbahce
84'🟨Serkan Kırıntılı · Konyaspor
90'🟨Mehmet Topal · Fenerbahce

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score2

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricFenerbahceKonyaspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.27
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.480.36
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.360.30
box share (last 5)0.560.60
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days228.00898.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.422.02
elo1611.12
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueŞükrü Saracoğlu Stadı
1462.30
elo momentum (last 5)2.78-17.10
eye test v10.49-0.65
eye trend v10.360.39
first sub minute (last 10)60.8056.40
form points (last 5)9.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.40-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.200.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.880.67
keeper form v10.690.62
league points44.0032.00
league rank4.0010.00
matches since blank4.000.00
matches since clean sheet1.001.00
matches since win0.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.2072.20
possession avg (last 5)60.6052.00
rest days7.005.17
scorer concentration0.190.45
season ppg1.831.33
skill v11.06-0.25
sot against avg (last 5)3.402.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.802.70
sot for avg (last 3)6.333.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.203.20
state index0.43-0.59
sterile dominance v10.720.24
threat rate (last 10)0.220.20
threat rate (last 3)0.210.19
threat rate (last 5)0.240.19
venue ppg (last 5)1.800.80