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Akhisarspor 1–3 Trabzonspor

← Süper Lig 2016 · Mon, Mar 13, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Yasar Kemal Ugurlu, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Trabzonspor win39%2.50
Akhisarspor win31%3.17
Draw30%3.23

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

11'⚽Sokol Cikalleshi · Akhisarspor
12'🟨Olcay Şahan · Trabzonspor
13'🟨Kadir Keleş · Akhisarspor
17'🟨Olcan Adın · Akhisarspor
58'⚽Dame N'Doye · Trabzonspor
70'🟨João Pereira · Trabzonspor
77'⚽ (pen)Uğur Demirok · Trabzonspor
82'⚽Dame N'Doye · Trabzonspor
88'🟨Okay Yokuşlu · Trabzonspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAkhisarsporTrabzonspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.360.33
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.380.34
box share (last 5)0.540.64
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days12.00437.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.202.10
elo1469.53
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueManisa 19 Mayis
1522.17
elo momentum (last 5)-3.9328.56
eye test v1-0.540.47
eye trend v10.210.08
first sub minute (last 10)57.0053.70
form points (last 5)6.0011.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.201.20
goals against avg (last 5)2.200.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.951.51
keeper form v10.770.80
league points27.0035.00
league rank14.006.00
matches since blank0.002.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)73.4076.40
possession avg (last 5)43.2053.60
rest days7.0410.00
scorer concentration0.250.21
season ppg1.171.52
skill v1-0.740.29
sot against avg (last 5)6.003.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.205.10
sot for avg (last 3)3.676.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.205.40
state index-0.290.52
sterile dominance v1-0.39-0.09
threat rate (last 10)0.220.28
threat rate (last 3)0.240.31
threat rate (last 5)0.220.27
venue ppg (last 5)2.002.00