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Rizespor 1–2 Antalyaspor

← Süper Lig 2016 · Sun, Mar 12, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Halis Ozkahya, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Rizespor win50%1.96
Antalyaspor win25%3.86
Draw25%3.89

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

21'⚽Deniz Kadah · Antalyaspor
28'🟨Mbilla Etame · Antalyaspor
39'⚽Mbilla Etame · Antalyaspor
58'🟨Nosa Igiebor · Rizespor
71'🟨Leonard Kweuke · Rizespor
71'🟨Leonard Kweuke · Rizespor
71'🟥Leonard Kweuke · Rizespor
79'⚽Özgür Çek · Rizespor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score2

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricRizesporAntalyaspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.220.30
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.340.31
box share (last 5)0.640.51
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days832.00162.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.941.62
elo1427.81
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueÇaykur Didi Stadyumu
1515.41
elo momentum (last 5)-16.90-16.61
eye test v1-0.20-0.50
eye trend v1-0.53-0.25
first sub minute (last 10)45.5052.90
form points (last 5)4.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.60-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.60
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.050.85
keeper form v10.580.71
league points20.0035.00
league rank16.006.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet4.002.00
matches since win4.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)73.0070.20
possession avg (last 5)41.8046.00
rest days8.005.96
scorer concentration0.350.25
season ppg0.871.52
skill v1-0.88-0.87
sot against avg (last 5)3.403.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.304.50
sot for avg (last 3)2.333.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.203.60
state index-0.75-0.25
sterile dominance v1-0.84-0.53
threat rate (last 10)0.270.25
threat rate (last 3)0.230.25
threat rate (last 5)0.260.24
venue ppg (last 5)0.801.40