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Besiktas 2–2 Kayserispor

← Süper Lig 2016 · Sun, Mar 12, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Cuneyt Cakir, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Besiktas win68%1.43
Draw20%4.78
Kayserispor win11%8.54

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

22'🟨Marcelo · Besiktas
29'🟨Levent Gülen · Kayserispor
39'🟨Raheem Lawal · Kayserispor
55'⚽Vincent Aboubakar · Besiktas
64'⚽Umut Bulut · Kayserispor
72'🟨Deniz Türüç · Kayserispor
76'🟨Andreas Beck · Besiktas
82'⚽ (og)Andreas Beck · Kayserispor
88'⚽Vincent Aboubakar · Besiktas

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBesiktasKayserispor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.410.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.320.28
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.380.34
box share (last 5)0.410.54
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days650.0070.00
congestion 21d5.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.531.90
elo1649.85
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueVodafone Park
1487.20
elo momentum (last 5)23.3869.69
eye test v10.980.59
eye trend v1-0.51-0.06
first sub minute (last 10)60.3058.90
form points (last 5)13.0013.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.001.60
goals against avg (last 5)0.601.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.602.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.421.49
keeper form v10.740.62
league points53.0026.00
league rank1.0014.00
matches since blank13.005.00
matches since clean sheet1.002.00
matches since win1.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)85.4078.80
possession avg (last 5)61.0051.80
rest days2.837.00
scorer concentration0.280.38
season ppg2.301.13
skill v11.720.41
sot against avg (last 5)2.803.00
sot for avg (last 10)5.904.70
sot for avg (last 3)4.334.67
sot for avg (last 5)5.805.20
state index0.870.69
sterile dominance v10.78-0.33
threat rate (last 10)0.260.27
threat rate (last 3)0.230.30
threat rate (last 5)0.270.31
venue ppg (last 5)3.001.40