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Osmanlispor 1–1 Bursaspor

← Süper Lig 2016 · Sat, Mar 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Mete Kalkavan, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Osmanlispor win64%1.53
Draw22%4.34
Bursaspor win14%6.99

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

38'🟨Musa Çağıran · Osmanlispor
40'⚽ (pen)Deniz Yilmaz · Bursaspor
52'🟨Merter Yüce · Bursaspor
76'🟨Pablo Batalla · Bursaspor
77'🟨Yonathan Del Valle · Bursaspor
85'⚽Aminu Umar · Osmanlispor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricOsmanlisporBursaspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.280.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.240.34
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.280.32
box share (last 5)0.460.53
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days10.0042.00
congestion 21d4.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.063.84
elo1522.27
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueOsmanlı Stadyumu
1467.19
elo momentum (last 5)-22.16-25.17
eye test v10.03-0.92
eye trend v10.120.21
first sub minute (last 10)66.6059.70
form points (last 5)4.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.20-1.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.000.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.550.79
keeper form v10.730.66
league points30.0031.00
league rank10.009.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet4.0012.00
matches since win3.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)72.2070.20
possession avg (last 5)46.0038.60
rest days5.887.00
scorer concentration0.210.26
season ppg1.301.35
skill v1-0.67-1.39
sot against avg (last 5)5.205.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.203.30
sot for avg (last 3)4.004.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.403.00
state index-0.60-0.74
sterile dominance v1-1.01-0.71
threat rate (last 10)0.300.21
threat rate (last 3)0.370.22
threat rate (last 5)0.310.21
venue ppg (last 5)0.000.00