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Fenerbahce 1–0 Osmanlispor

← Süper Lig 2016 · Sun, Mar 5, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Alper Ulusoy, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Fenerbahce win55%1.79
Draw27%3.66
Osmanlispor win19%5.21

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

25'🟨Souza · Fenerbahce
27'🟨Tiago Pinto · Osmanlispor
30'🟨Jeremain Lens · Fenerbahce
70'🟨Koray Altınay · Osmanlispor
84'🟨Mehmet Topal · Fenerbahce
87'🟨Hasan Ali Kaldırım · Fenerbahce
87'🟨Adam Maher · Osmanlispor
90'🟨Koray Altınay · Osmanlispor
90'🟨Numan Çürüksu · Osmanlispor
90'🟥Koray Altınay · Osmanlispor
90'⚽Mehmet Topal · Fenerbahce

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricFenerbahceOsmanlispor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.29
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.280.37
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.290.27
box share (last 5)0.480.47
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days216.004.00
congestion 21d4.004.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.322.73
elo1596.85
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueŞükrü Saracoğlu Stadı
1528.74
elo momentum (last 5)-23.94-28.83
eye test v1-0.11-0.06
eye trend v10.090.36
first sub minute (last 10)58.2068.20
form points (last 5)4.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.20-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.601.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.061.56
keeper form v1—0.67
league points38.0030.00
league rank4.009.00
matches since blank2.000.00
matches since clean sheet2.003.00
matches since win6.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.2074.60
possession avg (last 5)59.0049.00
rest days7.007.13
scorer concentration0.210.21
season ppg1.731.36
skill v10.95-0.22
sot against avg (last 5)2.803.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.404.50
sot for avg (last 3)4.675.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.004.20
state index-0.22-0.23
sterile dominance v10.85-0.50
threat rate (last 10)0.220.29
threat rate (last 3)0.270.33
threat rate (last 5)0.210.28
venue ppg (last 5)1.802.20