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Akhisarspor 3–0 Antalyaspor

← Süper Lig 2016 · Sat, Feb 25, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Mete Kalkavan, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Akhisarspor win39%2.47
Antalyaspor win31%3.16
Draw30%3.29

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

12'🟨Mustafa Yumlu · Akhisarspor
23'⚽Özer Hurmacı · Akhisarspor
49'⚽Aykut Çeviker · Akhisarspor
55'⚽Özer Hurmacı · Akhisarspor
66'🟨Samuel Eto'o · Antalyaspor
81'🟨Mostapha El Kabir · Antalyaspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAkhisarsporAntalyaspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.39
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.400.33
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.440.40
box share (last 5)0.570.58
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days177.00147.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.512.50
elo1462.82
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueManisa 19 Mayis
1544.77
elo momentum (last 5)-23.1342.06
eye test v1-0.690.01
eye trend v10.07-0.43
first sub minute (last 10)55.8056.10
form points (last 5)4.0013.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.601.20
goals against avg (last 5)2.000.60
goals for avg (last 5)0.401.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.670.70
keeper form v10.790.79
league points24.0035.00
league rank15.005.00
matches since blank2.0013.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)70.6074.00
possession avg (last 5)39.8049.00
rest days5.887.10
scorer concentration0.310.27
season ppg1.141.67
skill v1-1.29-0.29
sot against avg (last 5)6.004.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.305.10
sot for avg (last 3)3.003.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.004.60
state index-0.520.67
sterile dominance v1-0.56-0.11
threat rate (last 10)0.220.26
threat rate (last 3)0.220.21
threat rate (last 5)0.200.23
venue ppg (last 5)2.001.60