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Alanyaspor 4–1 Adana Demirspor

← Süper Lig 2016 · Sat, Feb 25, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Firat Aydinus, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Alanyaspor win51%1.92
Draw26%3.76
Adana Demirspor win23%4.20

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

13'⚽ (pen)Vagner Love · Alanyaspor
28'🟨Emre Akbaba · Alanyaspor
37'⚽Kenneth Omeruo · Alanyaspor
59'🟨Roni · Adana Demirspor
70'🟨Kenneth Omeruo · Alanyaspor
71'⚽ (pen)Magaye Gueye · Adana Demirspor
73'🟨Tevfik Altındağ · Adana Demirspor
74'⚽Junior Fernandes · Alanyaspor
80'🟨Renan Foguinho · Adana Demirspor
84'🟨Cem Özdemir · Adana Demirspor
90'🟨Georgios Tzavellas · Alanyaspor
90'⚽Emre Akbaba · Alanyaspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAlanyasporAdana Demirspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.410.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.430.29
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.420.35
box share (last 5)0.570.48
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days817.0086.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.913.37
elo1457.70
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueBAHCESEHIR OKULLARI ARENA
1432.78
elo momentum (last 5)-9.976.94
eye test v1-0.22-0.43
eye trend v1-0.34-0.30
first sub minute (last 10)57.1056.00
form points (last 5)4.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.40-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.801.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.080.82
keeper form v10.680.62
league points22.0017.00
league rank15.0017.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet0.002.00
matches since win1.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.4075.20
possession avg (last 5)48.4049.80
rest days4.795.98
scorer concentration0.250.29
season ppg1.050.81
skill v1-0.09-0.11
sot against avg (last 5)5.804.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.304.20
sot for avg (last 3)3.003.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.803.40
state index-0.44-0.43
sterile dominance v10.180.14
threat rate (last 10)0.240.25
threat rate (last 3)0.160.21
threat rate (last 5)0.200.21
venue ppg (last 5)0.800.80